Quick Takes on the Day's News & Politics

SUNSHINE STATE DAY! POSTED JANUARY 31, 2012: 6:40AM

The polls in Florida are set to open in less that 20 minutes. The public opinion polls released over the last couple of days show that Romney is set to win big. Double-digits big. Hard to believe that it was only 10 days ago when Newt was carrying the big momentum into the voting booths in South Carolina. I'll write more this afternoon, prior to the polls closing, but before I head to teach class, there is one thing that I think is important to discuss: why is this GOP race so volatile?

As discussed below (and in previous commentary), the GOP has been wrestling with the ideological trajectory its party is going to traverse since 2008, when McCain lost, but Palin's star was born. This is the fight of the losing political party. In other words, while some may make it seem as though this "divided GOP" is unique, it is not. This fight between presidential aspirants leading different coalitions within their parties make politics in America.

For instance, if Martin Van Buren had won the Democratic nomination in 1844 instead of James Polk, it is not altogether certain that the annexation of Texas would have occurred. Polk's prevailing in the nomination contest moved the Democratic Party away from Van Buren's moderate position (which involved taking into account the Northern states' fears that doing so would make slavery permanent - impossible to end) and towards Polk's position (which was favored by the South & the West partly because they wanted more protection on their frontiers and they saw Texas as a "buffer" zone, but also because they hoped the new territory would further secure the institution of slavery). In short, Democratic politics went down a different path because of the Party's presidential choice. And this is how our system works. And it is typically the party which lost in the previous cycle that experiences the most poignant fights.

That is why Perry, Cain, and Palin are backing Newt. Not because they believe in his past - his record on policy or his personal life - but because they believe in his future. And they believe that they will each play a role in the future of the GOP, if he wins. They believe, despite all evidence to the contrary, that Newt's past flip-flops, disloyalty, elitism, or grandiose tendencies will not be prologue to his future as a fiscal and social conservative committed to increasing the power of southern and western outsiders, rogues, and mavericks.

As personal and ugly as the attacks may seem, they are not. They are merely about knowing the stakes of the contest. More later on what to look for in Florida!

Happy Election Day! 

A NEWT NOMINATION: O - JOY!!! LET'S GO TO SOUTH CAROLINA! POSTED JANUARY 21, 2012: 11:00PM

Newt won big. Big. Double-digits big. And now, it's not the Democrats in 2004 with Romney as Kerry. It's the alternate path: Romney as Hillary in 2008 -- with one cavaet: I still believe Romney will win the GOP nomination. Why? Because Newt is not Palin. In the Ripon Society's Forum in November of 2010, in addition to explaining what I believed were the two most likely paths for the GOP (similar to the Democrats' nomination contest in either 2004 or 2008), I wrote:

"Republicans should brace themselves for a raucous presidential nomination contest … Elites will disparage populists. Conservatives will condemn compromisers. Tea Partiers will challenge the Washington establishment."

Given that a large plurality (44%) of born-again or evangelical  Christians (who made up 65% of the electorate) voted for Newt and overlooked his family values (3 marriages, 2 affairs), his crony capitalism (Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae), his ethics reprimand ($300,000 fine when he was Speaker), and his hypocrisy (pursuing an impeachment of Clinton for Monica when he was engaging in an affair with Callista), there is only one conclusion: they weren't voting for Newt, the were voting against Mitt. Honestly, the exits are almost laughable. Voters said that the economy was the most important issue to them and that electability was the most important trait in the candidate they voted for.

Really? Seriously?

Then why did these GOPers vote for Newt? He's a Washington insider with no substantive experience in the "private economy" (he's lived off the public economy - teaching, government, and lobbying - his entire life) who also happens to have really high unfavorables (see article linked to below) and be as combustible (read: self-destructive) as dynamite. Either "Southern hospitality" has become "Southern delusion," or they were sending a message to the elites in Washington (as if Newt who lives in Northern Virginia and is both an academic and a politico isn't an elite) that they weren't going to be ignored. This was a protest vote. Not an endorsement. Listening to Sarah Palin, these voters really decided that the most important thing was to keep this race going and to keep Romney from a coronation, so that they - Tea Party conservatives - were not "aced out" by a Massachusetts moderate's GOP platform and presidential administration. 

Romney now has a decision to make. Does he court the Tea Party (and Sarah Palin?) to unite the conservatives, or does he try to win without them and risk an "unenthusiastic" base? It'll be interesting to see how Romney pivots in FL.

Stay tuned. More next week. 

MORE FROM BEFORE SOUTH CAROLINA

***PS: I have "breaking news" (not really - just following msm dicta for all news) to share. I'm now on Twitter. My handle is @LaraMBrownPhD.

***POST FROM BEFORE & AFTER NEW HAMPSHIRE

***POST FROM BEFORE & AFTER IOWA CAUCUS HERE