Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants

BEFORE THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTE - POSTED JANUARY 9, 2012:

A few quick thoughts before dinner (more tomorrow, before the rumors start rolling and the exits start leaking).

First, the evidence keeps coming in that the GOP 2012 race is a lot like the Dems 2004 race. Pew Research Center's latest poll has a chart (LINK), which shows how well GOP enthusiasm has followed the path that Democrats trod in 2004 (LINK to full report). Beyond this, Gallup just released data on the number of Americans identifying as Independents in 2011 (LINK), and no surprise it hit a record high (40%). But what is also interesting is that over this past decade these spikes also occurred in 2003 and 2007, suggesting that over the course of this election year, as President Obama and the GOP nominee begin to square off, people will "re-identify" with a party, and given what Gallup goes on to explain about "leaners" (that there are currently more GOPers than Dems), one should expect this presidential race to be one of the closest we've seen since 2000 or 2004 (it will likely turn on one or two battleground states). Obama's campaign team understands that they've got their work cut out for them, and they believe they've got it (mostly) under control (LINK). 

Second, if we understand that this cycle's GOP nomination race, in both large and small ways, tracks the 2004 Democratic contest, then we might also want to look at what happened in NH that year. No, not just that Kerry won, but that Howard Dean, who came in third in Iowa, took second place. That Wesley Clark who did not mount a campaign in Iowa came in third. That John Edwards who came in second in Iowa came in fourth. Personally, I think these 2004 standings (LINK) may tell us something about what may happen tomorrow. And if I were just running through the 2004 finishers and lining them up with the GOPers who seem to attract a "mirror-image" constituency and have run similar campaigns, then I would expect:

*Romney to win, with around 36% (similar to Kerry's 39%)

*Paul to place second, with around 22% (similar to Dean's 26%)

*Huntsman to place third, with around 14% (similar to Clark's 13%)

*Santorum to place fourth, with around 11% (similar to Edwards's 12%)

*Gingrich to place fifth, with around 10% (similar to Lieberman's 9%)

*Perry to place sixty, with around 2% (similar to Kucinich's 1%)

Now, I will say that Gingrich has been rising, and it's quite possible that he'll catch Santorum and place fourth (putting Santorum in fifth). As odd as this may seem, whoever wins that "fouth" place (Santorum or Gingrich) is going to be Romney's primary competition in South Carolina on January 21st.

More on this and the county breakdowns on New Hampshire tomorrow! Stay tuned!

UPDATED JANUARY 10, 2012 - 3:30 PM

Since I am running very behind schedule today, I am simply going to provide a few links, which may be helpful in terms taking a closer look at what places in NH Romney needs to win, in order to do well tonight.

NH's political reporters on WMUR (video) talking about the counties and towns (LINK).

CNN's results from NH counties in 2008 (LINK) and the exit poll (LINK).

Let me quickly add that I will be looking to see if Romney gets above 28% in the four counties (Cheshire, Sullivan, Merrimack, and Strafford) that immediately surround Hillsborough and Rockingham (both areas he won by 35% or more in 2008). In other words, what I am looking for is whether or not close to his "strongholds," he picked up voters. I will also be watching Hillsborough and Rockingham to make sure that he doesn't slip below his 35% mark from 2008. If he does both, runs above 28% in the surrounding counties and persists in earning 35% in his "base" counties, then he's likely to win "big" tonight (in part because these are the counties with the population, especially Merrimack where Concord is located and Strafford where Rochester is situated).

And once again, I will be looking to see if women turn out to vote in the GOP primary! In 2008, they only made up 43% of the electorate. Romney does well among women (Santorum only edged him in IA because the women who turned out there were evangelicals) in the state. In fact, the Suffolk University tracking poll showed that he earned 31% of men's votes, but 36% of women's votes. Hence, if women turn out, Romney should have a strong night.

More later (hopefully!). Happy Election Day! Happy Returns!

UPDATED JANUARY 10, 2012 - 8:30 PM

Well, the media have called it for Romney and the early returns appear to be fairly close to what I suggested. We'll see where it ends up! 

Two quick things: According to the exits, it appears as though more women turned out in the GOP NH primary this time around than in 2008, which as I have mentioned several times, helps Romney because he generally does well among women. Also, why they were able to call this race so early was because of what I suggested above earlier today - he not only did better in the counties that were his "base," but he also did very well in those counties that "surround" his "base." Check out Merrimack (LINK) where he is currently running about 5% ahead of what he did in 2008. Impressive.

OK - now it's time for dessert! And then, if you want to catch me on John Batchelor's Radio Show (LINK) tonight, Salena Zito and I will be on during the 10:30PM segment.

UPDATED JANUARY 11, 2012 - 12:15 AM

Last thought for the evening, and it comes from having mentioned the importance of Democratic Party's enthusiasm in this election.

From my perspective, far too many individuals are focused on this election in terms of "persuasion" - which side is going to be able to tell the best message and woo the record-high number of Independents in the electorate. I do not believe that this is going to be about "persuasion." Why? Because it is an incumbent election.

Incumbent elections are more referendums on the sitting president. In short, it is simple, if you aren't satisfied with the President, you vote for the opposition Party's Candidate. If you are satisfied, you vote for the President. This is a binary choice (yes/no), not a nuanced equation about which candidate (assuming an open seat, like 2008) is going to be better/worse than the other. As such, this election will look more like 2004 than most people seem to be grasping at the moment. What does that mean?

It means that by-and-large the Independents are going to split (or at least, if I were a strategist for either party, that is what I would assume). If you look at the data from 2004, Kerry actually won the Independents nationally (49% to 48% - Nader pulled 1%) and in battleground states like Ohio (LINK) and Florida (LINK), Kerry handily beat Bush (in Ohio 59% to 49%, and in Florida 57% to 41% - Nader got 1%).

What is the lesson? The 2004 election was about GOP turnout. Enthusiasm mattered. The Republicans were able to turn-out more voters than Democrats. Why? Because Democrats were not enthusiastic about Kerry.

What should Romney learn? You need to be focused on uniting and exciting the GOP base. Again, this means he needs Palin's endorsement and he needs "Mama Grizzlies" and the Tea Party. He made inroads tonight. But whether he can bring on board those in South Carolina (DeMint?) and maybe even land a Palin endorsement when she speaks at CPAC on February 11, 2012, could well mean the difference for him between winning and losing next November.

We can assume that Axelrod, et al., will work to excite the base. This is what all of that "progressive-populist-more spending economic message" over the last few months has been all about. Obama in 2011 thought he could be Bill Clinton (no one can be Bill) and he thought he could "compromise" his way back into the nation's hearts. The country is too distressed, dissatified, distrusting, and disillusioned for that "compromise" strategy to have worked. As such, the only way Obama can win is by re-exciting his base. His Chicago team knows this. It is why this election is not about persuasion (except trying to persuade one's base that the other side is either just right or left of the Devil), it is about partisan turnout.

And mark my words, as the rhetoric heats up between Obama and Romney, Independents will return to the fold, and as Gallup shows (LINK, scroll down to second graph) - when you account for "leaners" the parties are exactly tied at 45% each. The only way to break that tie is to bring "more" of your friends to the party.